In-Depth Race Analysis

Below is information provided by Mart Martin, which was compiled for the Almanac of Women and Minorities in American Politics. I found it very interesting. I haven't seen many major media outlets focusing on this fact, but in 2010, Republicans greatly increased the number of Minorities serving in Federal and Statewide Office in the United States. And the South led the way, putting more Minorities into statewide office than any other region of the country. There is one fact not mentioned below, which was mentioned to me a few weeks ago by a Black Conservative friend. Virtually all Democrat Minorities holding state or federal legislative office come from districts that have been cut specifically to have a majority of constituents from their given Minority Group. However, all Republican Minorities elected to state or federal legislative office come from majority White Districts. When we add to this the large number of Minority Candidates that Republicans select in their party's primary, who fail to win the General Election, it clearly shows that White Republican voters are far more likely to vote for Minority Candidates than are White Democrat voters.

The following is Mr. Martin's entry::

Sophomore Democrat Representative Joe Donnelly first ran for congress in 2004 against Republican Congressman Chris Chocola, but it didn't quite go his way; he lost 54% to 45%. However, that didn't deter Donnelly, and he ran again 2 years later, in what was a much better year to be a Democrat. Donnelly defeated 2-term Representative Chocola by about the same margin he had lost to him 2 years earlier; 54% to 46%. It seemed like a huge feat to many outside of Indiana to take the long held Republican 2nd district and flip it Democrat. However, the 2nd that elected Donnelly was not anything like its predecessor that once elected Conservative stalwart Congressman Mike Pence.

When Indiana lost its 10th Congressional district following the 2000 census, it affected virtually every race in the state going into the 2002 mid-terms. IL-10 was the heavily Democrat inner-city Indianapolis district of former Congresswoman Julia Carson. In theory, when it became defunct, those voters had to be dispersed through the remaining 9 districts. However, Democrats in the Indiana Legislature shuffled all the districts in an attempt to keep their four Congressmen and force the Republicans to lose one of their six representatives.

As the districts were reconfigured from ten to nine, Republican Congressmen were shuffled in a game of "political musical chairs" generally based on which newly gerrymandered CD their hometown ended up in. Pence was moved from what was then IN-2 to the new IN-6, which sent Congressman Dan Burton from the 6th to the new 5th, and that shuffled Rep. Steve Buyers out of IN-5 and into IN-4 to face a primary with GOP Freshman Brian Kearns, who had been shuffled from IN-7. Buyers won the nomination in the new 4th, and GOP Congressman Mark Souder, who had been in the 4th, went to the 3rd. IN-7 moved from west-central Indiana to become the new district of Democrat Julia Carson in Indianapolis; essentially overlapping what had been her solid-Democrat 10th. All of this left the New IN-2 with completely new borders, and Democrat Rep Timothy Roemer, who had been in IN-3, didn't like the looks of that new much larger district he was placed into. The Congressman promptly decided to retire. With Republican Kearns losing his primary and Roemer retiring, the Indiana delegation went from ten Congressmen down to only eight incumbents. With nine districts to fill, that development meant that the new IN-2 had no incumbent, and which side would be favored by its new border--which combined the blue-collar Chicago suburbs on Lake Michigan, east of Gary, with the conservative region of north-central Indiana and the Notre Dame dominated South Bend--were a complete mystery to both parties.

Since the working class and university population taken from the Democratic 3rd was larger than that coming from the old Republican-leaning 5th, the new IN-2 was expected to lean Democrat and voter registration numbers and precinct voting data seemed to back that up. However, the 3rd had never been that heavily Democratic, and it tended to be very socially conservative because of the heavy Catholic population, so when it was combined with the neighboring 5th, it ended up electing a Republican, who had the more Catholic sounding-name, Chris Chocola, by a 4% margin. The Democrats learned their lesson, and when 2004 came around, they ran an Irish-Catholic, Joe Donnelly, but Chocola had done well in his first term to stand out as a young leader in Congress, so he was re-elected rather handily. However, 2 years later, things had taken a downturn for Republicans in the 2006 midterms, and Donnelly won by a solid margin. Finally, in 2008, a year when anti-Bush sentiment tilted the middle-class in the Midwest heavily towards Democrats, Donnelly won by an extremely large margin over unknown Conservative charter boat captain Luke Puckett. About this time, pundits in DC started noticing that the new IN-2's election results tended to match the sentiment of the nation in each election year; slightly Republican year in 2002 (GOP wins by 4%), solid Republican year in 2004 (GOP by 9%), electorate starts to turn on Republicans in 2006 (DEM by 8%), landslide year for Democrats in 2008 (DEM by massive margin). When you consider that the northwestern end of the district is Chicago suburbs, thus causing an above average Obama-bump for the Democrat, this district mirrors the national mood in each election very well. Therefore, in most pundits' minds, IN-2 had become a new Congressional Bellwether District in the way that OH-16 or CT-5 had been for much of the 20th century.

Rep. Donnelly finds himself coming off a 37% win, which typically means a Congressman is very Safe, but he's running in a Bellwether District facing an electorate that's turning heavily on the Democratic Party. In his first term, Donnelly manage to distinguish himself as part of the House Financial Services Committee, making populist overtures about Banks and Wall Street finding ways to give the poor and working class greater opportunities for Wealth. He also joined the Blue Dog Coalition and established himself as a political moderate by joining Republicans in creating incentives for Small Businesses and improving conditions at Veterans Hospitals. This set him up for a huge win in 2008, with the benefit of overwhelming Catholic support, buoyed by a heavy turnout among Notre Dame Students in South Bend. However, as the 111th Congress began, the Financial & Housing sectors had taken a big hit; much of it as a result of the lending practices that had been forced on them by Democrat legislation or executive order over the previous 3 decades. While these actions had been put in place long before Donnelly became a Congressman, his reputation still took a hit for having championed lending as a means of economic equality and for not recognizing the warning signs as a member of the Financial Services committee. However, what has really damaged Donnelly most over the last 2 years are his consistent votes in favor of President Obama's Agenda. He has lost all reputation as an independent or Blue Dog, especially as a result of his support for Obamacare. He's now seen by many in his district as a follower, afraid to stand up to Democratic Leadership.

Unlike 2008, when Donnelly faced a relative unknown, in 2010 he must face a very popular Republican State Representatives, Jackie Walorski. Walorski, who was previously a popular newscaster in South Bend, has easily won election to the State Legislature 3 times, and quickly made a name for herself on the Families, Children & Human Affairs Committee; being named to Republican Leadership after just 1 term. Walorski has outraised Donnelly in 2010, taking in well over $1,000,000, and has more on-hand to spend in the last week of the election than the incumbent. Furthermore, Walorski has strong support from the NRCC and independent organizations, including the Club for Growth, which is currently chaired by Donnelly's old foe and former IN-2 Congressman Chris Chocola. They have very successfully painted a picture of Rep. Donnelly as a proponent of Big Government and an obedient "lap dog" of Nancy Pelosi.

The key to victory in the 2nd for either party is St Joseph's County, in which South Bend is located. If a Republican wins here or keeps their loss to a few percent, then they take the district. But if the Democrats have a large victory here, it's impossible for a Republican to catch up elsewhere, as St Joseph's is much larger than any other county in the district. Like Donnelly, Walorski hails from South Bend, and she's well known and trusted throughout the metropolitan area from both her time in the Legislature and on TV. What also helps Walorski is her Polish name. After Germans, Polish-Americans are the largest ethnic group living in South Bend. But the key to victory in IN-2 will come down to the Catholic vote. Over the last 2 decades, Catholics have been turning more and more to the Republican Party, but this political shift took a step backwards in the election of 2006 and, even more so, in 2008. However, in 2010, Catholics--especially men--have shown great anger and distrust towards President Obama and the Democratic Party. Practicing Catholics in South Bend were especially angry with Obamacare. Still, Notre Dame, once a leader in social conservatism, has become increasingly liberal, as has its student body. If young voters come out as they did in 2008, then Donnelly will likely survive, but if the midterms are dominated by the Catholic middle class, then IN-2 will almost certainly shift back to the GOP. And as goes the Bellwether, so goes the Congress…

NE-2 could end up being something of a "political exception" in 2010, especially considering Nebraska is one of America's most conservative states. Most of the Democrats' limited pick-up opportunities in this year's mid-terms are either open seats--AZ-3, FL-25, IL-10, DE-al, MI-3--or Republican Incumbents that hold swing districts in recently Blue states; such as WA-8, HI-1, PA-6, PA-15 & CA-3. Nowhere else are there vulnerable GOP Incumbents representing R+ districts in Red states, other than Rep. Lee Terry in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. There are two specific events that set in motion the possible unseating of a Republican Congressman in an R+ CD, in a year that greatly favors the Right.

The first event is a result of the fact that Nebraska is one of the 2 states that awards its Electoral Votes on the basis of congressional district vote totals. In 2008, the Obama Campaign focused considerable money and resources on winning the vote in NE-2, which consists of the city of Omaha and its metro area. Rahm Emanuel consulted Obama supporter and Omaha native Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Corporation is headquartered in the city, on how best to win over the electorate in the Republican-leaning district. Unlike Nebraska's other 2 Congressional Districts, which are rated R+11 and R+24, the 2nd leans only slightly Republican, rated R+6. As the city of Omaha has grown and become more technological, it's attracting many transplanted young professionals and artists from large Midwestern cities, such as Chicago and St Louis, and the electorate has turned more moderate, with an increasing number of progressive activists. The Obama Campaign tapped into the desire of young Omahans to be more cosmopolitan, combining music, art and technology with a focus on alternative energy, volunteerism, green initiatives, and being part of the global village. The infusion of young first-time voters, combined with the traditional democratic base in Omaha and the support of many thousands of Berkshire Hathaway employees, gave the President an extremely narrow 50% to 49% win over Senator McCain in NE-2, with just over 3,000 votes separating them. This victory, which most Democrats previously believed difficult, revived interest in the 2nd by the DCCC, who set out looking for a strong Democratic nominee to run against Rep. Terry in 2010.

Terry managed to win re-election in 2008 by a narrow 3% margin, despite facing a relatively weak Democrat nominee. This assured that the Republican was going to be a major target for Democrats in 2010. The second major issue that caused Terry to be vulnerable in 2008, and threatens him even more so in 2010, is his vote in favor of TARP. While the vote occurred a few weeks prior to the 2008 elections and certainly cost him some conservative support that year, a public consensus on TARP--or "Bush Stimulus" as it's sometimes called--had not yet been reached. In the time since, TARP has been grouped with Obama's economic Stimulus Bills, and generally considered a huge waste of taxpayer dollars with little positive results to be shown. Terry, as with all vulnerable Republican Incumbents in 2010, is attacked most often for this vote. Had these Republicans not voted with the 172 Democrat supporters of Rep. Patrick Kennedy's Bill, then it would have never been made law, and Terry is reminded of this frequently. While Terry's decision to vote with Democrats on this one Stimulus Bill has cost him support among conservatives, he didn't cast votes in favor of Obamacare or Cap'n'Trade, and therefore hasn't improved his position among progressive voters either. He's essentially stuck running in the political middle, which only makes him more vulnerable to a Democrat, should they choose to challenge him from the Right. And that's precisely where his opponent has planted himself.

Democrat nominee State Senator Tom White has made a name for himself as one of his parties most conservative members in the state legislature; frequently voting for and even co-sponsoring Republican Bills. White even personally took on Omaha's Democrat Mayor, Jim Suttle, who was opposed to a tax cutting bill that the State Senator had sponsored. White calls himself a small government, low tax, pro-growth Democrat, who criticizes TARP and all subsequent Stimulus Bills as a mistake. This has formed the primary basis of his challenge of Terry, and has earned him the support of a number of fiscally conservative Republicans. On most other issues, such as abortion, the War-on-Terror, gun control and gay marriage, White holds the same staunchly conservative stance as Terry; making it near impossible for the incumbent to brand the Democrat as a Liberal. White, on the other hand, has found a few congressional votes of Terry's to use as a claim that the Republican is, or was, soft on Illegal Immigration. He points to a vote in 2001, following 9/11, when Terry opposed having Military patrols on the southern border, and a 2004 vote, where the Congressman voted against turning in Illegal Immigrants, who seek medical assistance or services. White proclaims himself stronger on Illegal Immigration, offering his drafting and sponsorship of a Nebraska Legislative Bill to punish those who knowingly employ Illegal Aliens as proof of this fact.

While White has seemingly managed to place himself to the Right of Terry, it remains to be seen whether he can gain the substantial amount of Republican votes needed to win, especially in a year when the youth and minority vote that propelled Obama to victory in 2008 is unenthusiastic about voting in 2010 and likely to stay home. The key will be whether Conservatives choose to vote based solely on issues, which could help White, or whether they're more likely to vote strategically, focused on giving Republicans a majority, which would surely mean a seventh term for Terry. Across the nation, the majority of voters are leaning more towards strategic voting rather than on a candidate-versus-candidate basis. However, in Nebraska, there's not a Senate race nor a competitive Governors race to really get voters enthused across the state, and this fact could affect the outcome on November 2nd in a number of ways. It could help Terry, if the NE-2 Republican Base is fired up by national politics and chooses to show up in large numbers on Election Day. However, with a lack of statewide partisan unification, the voters of the 2nd could be more likely to view the race on a local basis, and this could help White if Democrats get enthusiastic about the opportunity to pick-up this seat and Conservatives determine his views are more in-line with their stances than are the Congressman's.

The only independent poll in this race was released this week, and it offers reasons for each candidate to be optimistic. Rep. Terry can be pleased with the fact that he has a 5% lead in the Omaha World Herald's poll of registered voters and that the Democrat has failed to break 40%. However, White can be enthusiastic about the fact that 10 days out from the election, the Republican Incumbent is well below 50%. Typically, more undecided voters break for the challenger than the incumbent in the last week of campaigning, and when you consider that only 38% view Terry favorably, White has reason to believe he can buck the national trend and pick-up a GOP seat in a Republican Wave midterm year. (Click to see poll)

TN-4 is an "Old South" Congressional District. Like fellow Southern Mountain Democrat-Holdouts, AL-5, WV-3, and VA-9, it's a congressional district made up of mostly working class and poor White voters spread across large swaths of rural Appalachian hills, dotted by small manufacturing or mining towns. These districts now have high R+ ratings because over the past 4 decades they've voted consistently for Republicans in Presidential Elections, and sometimes in Senate or Gubernatorial races as well, but when it comes to representation in State Legislature or the US House, they almost always elect a Democrat. These districts have carried this tradition since Reconstruction, passing from one generation to the next, and reinforced by unions, a belief that Republicans would try to impose federal law on state and local matters, and that only a Democrat would stand up for the concerns of blue collar workers and bring their share of pork back to the district.

At one time, essentially all parts of the South voted like this, with only Black designated districts electing Republicans. But as more and more big industries, banks and technology relocated to the South, the areas modernized, their economies grew rapidly and one by one the congressional districts switched to Republican. However, that growth and modernization bypassed many areas of the Appalachian Mountains; based as much on where Interstates were built as anything else. These congressional districts are the last hold-outs of the "Old South", always carrying on the traditions--and voting patterns--of their fathers before them. Though, as factories and mines close down, as Democrats increasingly employ racial-politics and focus on a "Global Agenda", and as the internet spreads to even the most rural areas, these districts are politically evolving. In 2010, more than any year prior, the competitive nature of these four districts shows this voting change. Mo Brooks is all but guaranteed to cement the transformation of AL-5 into a GOP stronghold, while Republican Morgan Griffith is running neck-n-neck with 14-term Congressman Rick Boucher in VA-9, and former West Virginia Supreme Court Justice Spike Maynard is in a close contest with surprisingly vulnerable 17-term Democrat Rep Nick Rahall. (See WV-3 in-depth)

While TN-4 has elected 2 Republicans to Congress in the last 140 years, it happened only in "GOP Wave" election years (1920 & 1994), and they have always returned to a Democrat as their next representative. This district has actually elected two very famous Democrats as congressmen, anti-civil rights Senator Al Gore, Sr. and environmentalist Vice President Al Gore, Jr. Both men started their careers as federal office holders in Tennessee's 4th. The only Republican to represent TN-4 in the last 8 decades was respected Conservative Van Hilleary, who swept into the open seat as part of the 1994 Republican Revolution. Hilleary was so popular that he won 4 terms--including his forth in 2000 when Gore was on the ballot for President--and had he not left to run for Governor in 2002, he might still be holding this district for Republicans today. However, when the seat opened in 2002, the district went back to its tradition of electing Democrats. Lincoln Davis won it that year by 6%, and has held it with larger margins ever since.

When Democrat Representatives Bart Gordon and John Tanner decided to retire from office instead of face brutal re-elections in a year when Tennesseans were furious over Stimulus and Obamacare, the entire focus of the Republican Party went to winning the seats they were vacating, TN-6 and TN-8, respectively. The strategy seems to have paid-off, with most pundits rating Republican nominees Diane Black, in TN-6, and Stephen Fincher, in TN-8, as heavy favorites to win the open seats. While R+13 TN-4 would have been a natural focus for a GOP pick-up in a mid-term election year, the effort to win those 2 open seats overshadowed it. However, for voters within the 4th, extremely angry over what they see as a President and Democratic Majority unwilling to listen to the people, ousting Lincoln Davis become a major focus.

Despite voting in favor of Obama's Stimulus, Davis cast Nay votes for Obamacare, Cap'n'Trade and Tarp, and he's certainly one of the more conservative members of the current Democratic Caucus. However, to voters that no longer trust Democrats to run Washington, Davis must be a target. As they put it, a vote for Lincoln is a vote for Pelosi. And even if--as Davis implies--he supports Hoyer, or another more moderate Democrat, for Speaker, his re-election could cost the Republicans a majority. For the constituents of TN-4, including many Democrats, who want the House to be a check on Obama's Executive Power, that scenario is unacceptable. This strategic reasoning, as much as anything else, has propelled the Republican, Dr. Scott DesJarlais, into the lead; according to recent polls.

Social and Fiscal Conservative Scott DesJarlais was born and raised in the district, and after moving North to earn his medical degree for the University of South Dakota, he returned home to Tennessee. He's currently a general practice physician at a medical clinic in Jasper, Tennessee, which is where his many patients urged him to run for Congress so that he might repeal Obamacare and reign in the federal spending. DesJarlais has never ran for, nor held, public office; something that would be sure to derail his election bid in most years. In 2010, however, many voters, especially in the Midwest and Upper South, prefer to have a Congressman who is an "average American". This, they claim, will insure that they're represented by someone who understands the needs of working class people and isn't consumed with a partisan agenda or political advancement. Scott's understanding of the American Healthcare System, his focus on Traditional Christian values, and his thoughtful, yet rugged, demeanor have struck a key with the voters of this district. He manages to seem, at once, an average guy, yet someone capable of achieving more than the average man.

The one thing remaining that still favors the Democrat Incumbent is the district's geography. The 4th starts on Tennessee's northern border and stretches hundreds of miles to the southern border, taking in 21 whole counties and portions of 3 others. Because this is a mostly rural district with no major cities, which cuts through several differing regions of the state, there is no simple method of reaching the majority of constituents. The voters of TN-4 are actually in 5 different TV Markets, which means that for a candidate to have just one of his ads seen by all voters, he must pay to air it five times. This characteristic always works in favor of the incumbent because they tend to have more money and already have solid name recognition. DesJarlais and Davis have each spent a little over half-a-million on paid media so far, but the Democrat still has an equal amount remaining, while the Republican has about a quarter of that amount left to spend. However, in an anti-democrat, anti-incumbent year such as this, one must wonder whether it's better on the 2010 ballot to be the well known Lincoln Davis or "that other guy"?

As I reported last week, TX-27 has unexpectedly become very competitive. Despite holding this district for the entire 28 years it has existed, Rep Solomon Ortiz now looks quite likely to be headed out. The Gulf Coast district was thought to be very safe for Ortiz, but the residents have grown increasingly angry with the Congressman. At issue is Ortiz's support of the Obama Administration, despite the damage that the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has caused to the Corpus Christi economy.

Residents believe that Ortiz, as a member of the House Subcommittee on Water Resources & Energy, should have immediately demanded that the White House overturn its decision and allow Congress to decide what steps needed to be taken to insure future spills didn't occur. Instead, he stayed relatively quiet about the drilling ban for over a month, taking political shots at BP, but not challenging the Administration until it became clear it was taking a political toll on him in late summer. At which time he joined other Gulf Congressman in pushing House Amendment 773 that demanded the ban be lifted on Rigs that had met stricter safety measures; although he ultimately voted against the Bill which contained the amendment. However, by the time he reacted against the ban, the damage had been done to his reputation. While there are some districts still willing to elect Democrats in Texas, there are few willing to vote for a Left-wing "Yes-Man". This is exactly what Ortiz has become in most constituents eyes, especially considering his votes in favor of Obamacare and all 3 Stimulus Bills.

Local Conservative talk show host Blake Farenthold seemed like a stronger challenger than Willie Vaden, who Ortiz faced in his last 3 re-elections, but the Republican received just 30% in the primary and only won the subsequent run-off by 250 votes over James Duerr. However, with his fiery rhetoric and consistent pro-growth message, Farenthold quickly gained the support of all Republicans and started catching on with Independents and Conservative Democrats as well. Although, the fact that the 27th has always been held by a Democrat and is a 60% Hispanic district still kept Ortiz in the Safe Dem column for most Pundits.

However, the district is rated R+2, Bush won it easily both times, and Obama only received 53%. Ortiz, himself, in a good year for Democrats, only received 58% of the vote in 2008, his lowest ever. What the pundits--and Ortiz--seemed to miss is that TX-27 is a conservative district, and a Democrat who isn't willing to stand up for his constituents needs and desires isn't going to hold this district for long. As Ortiz lost his independence during the 110th and 111th Congress, he lost the respect of his district, and it's quite likely that he's going to lose many of their votes in 2010 as well. The question is whether it'll be enough to turn this district over to Republicans for the first time in its history.

Below are the findings from one of the polls that caused TX-27 to suddenly jump onto DC's radar; causing Real Clear Politics to take this race from Safe Dem to Likely Dem, then further Right to Lean Dem, all within the last week. This phone poll was taken by Independent news outlet Before It's News 10 days ago.

• Blake Farenthold 44% Solomon Ortiz 38%


• Farenthold has a net +22% image (35% favorable, 13% unfavorable).


• More voters now hold an unfavorable than a favorable opinion of Solomon Ortiz (42% favorable, 44% unfavorable)


• Ortiz’s image is suffering the most in the Corpus Christi media market, where he is viewed unfavorably (37% favorable to 50% unfavorable)


• Farenthold holds a sixteen point lead over Ortiz on the ballot test in the Corpus Christi market (48% Farenthold, 32% Ortiz, and 2% for the Libertarian candidate, Ed Mishou), falling just two points below the magic number of 50% in a media market that includes two out of every three historic voters in the district. Given the percentage of voters in that same region who hold an unfavorable opinion about him (50%), Ortiz has a difficult hill to climb in the Corpus Christi area.


• In the Harlingen media market, Ortiz is ahead, as is somewhat expected (34% Farenthold, 46% Ortiz, 18% Undecided); however Ortiz is below 50% in that region and Farenthold is holding his own at 34%, making it possible for Farenthold to obtain a percentage in the area in the mid-forties, if Independents break even between him and Ortiz.


• Farenthold holds an 18% lead over Ortiz among voters who say their voting pattern is to split the ticket (42% Farenthold, 24% Ortiz, and 29% Undecided).


• The political environment is favorable to Farenthold: 66% of the voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 26% who believe it’s going in the right direction. The district-wide generic ballot favors a Republican (44% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 22% Undecided). President Obama is not as unpopular in TX-27 as he is in other districts but he is still viewed unfavorably (39% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Speaker Pelosi is viewed even more negatively (26% favorable, 57% unfavorable)


• The worst number for Ortiz is that only 39% of voters surveyed believe he deserves another term in Congress, while 52% believe he has not earned another term.


• " This poll interviewed 400 registered voters in the district, 60% of whom were Hispanic, matching the Voting-Age population of the district. The 400 interviewees were randomly selected and were stratified by county to reflect historic voter trends. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

The 2008 election in Florida's newest congressional district, FL-25, which was one of 2 created after the 2000 census, was too close for comfort for Republican Representative Mario Diaz-Balart. Diaz-Balart, who has held this seat since it was first contested in 2002, won re-election with only 53% of the vote in '08. In the 3 previous elections, he had never received less than 58%. Fearing that he'd be vulnerable again in 2010, Mario moved over to the neighboring 21st district, currently held by his older brother, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, who had decided to retire. FL-21, which has been held by Lincoln since it was created prior to the 1992 elections, is more solidly Cuban--thus more conservative--than FL-25, which combines a few Cuban Miami suburbs, such as Homestead, with the everglades, and the lower western coast of Florida. While the 21st is 75% Hispanic, the vast majority of which are Cuban-Americans, the 25th is only around 60% Hispanic, many of whom are not Cuban, and has a higher percentage of both Black & White voters.

The Democrat that managed to garner 47% in 2008, and came within a few thousand votes of unseating Diaz-Balart, Joe Garcia, is running again in 2010. Joe Garcia is a director of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF), which is an organization that has historically sought to overthrow the Castro Regime and bring Democracy and Capitalism back to Cuba. For most of its history, CANF was considered a very conservative organization, long thought to be the body that would rush into Havana at the death of Castro, overthrow the communist regime, assure stability, form a temporary Democratic Government, and set up free Cuban elections. However, under Garcia's direction, CANF has moved substantially to the Left, and now calls for lifting the embargo and working with President Raul Castro to move Cuba towards a Free Market Democracy. Over the past decade, Garcia began affiliating more and more with Miami's high profile Cuban-American Left, such as singer Gloria Estefan, and the Obama Administration even named Garcia as his Director of the Office of Minority Economic Impact, which is part of the U.S. Department of Energy.

While Cuban-Americans have traditionally leaned Republican--seeing the Democratic party as being a little too cozy with Communists--and hold socially conservative Catholic beliefs, over the past 2 decades, a growing number of younger American-born Cubans are leaning Left. And even some Cuban Republicans are now questioning whether the Embargo is the best strategy in a time when the U.S. freely trades with large communist nations, such as China & Venezuela. The growth of the Cuban-American Left and the immigration of more left-leaning Hispanic nationalities to Florida is what has made traditionally Republican districts, such as FL-18, FL-21 & FL-25, more competitive. While the GOP Incumbents managed to hold onto all 3 majority Cuban districts in 2008, less than 2% separated McCain and Obama in each; with Obama even winning FL-18.

The Republican tasked with keeping the 25th in GOP hands is State Representative David Rivera. Rivera currently represents the 112th district in the Florida House, which was vacated by Mario Diaz-Balart upon his 2002 election to Congress, and he hopes to once again take over a legislative seat being vacated by Diaz-Balart. Rivera, like Garcia, has worked for CANF, and, throughout his life, has been very active in government offices and organizations that focus on Cuban-American policy & political interests. He's always been very popular in the Miami Cuban community, and easily won re-election to the Florida House on all four occasions.

However, over the past year, Garcia has alleged that Rivera has a history of Domestic Violence. His primary proof is a 1994 domestic abuse charge filed in Miami-Dade County against a defendant named David M. Rivera. The Republican denies that he is the David Rivera in question, and the victim of the attack has consistently maintained that State Rep. Rivera was not the defendant in her case. Still, this has not kept the Miami media from discussing the claim, nor has the Garcia Campaign stopped making the accusation; claiming they have classified police reports of past incidents as well. Regardless of the validity of the claims, Rivera's reputation has certainly been damaged by them. What looks to further complicate Rivera's election to Congress are two 3rd Party candidates that have successfully petitioned to appear on the ballot. The first is Craig Porter, a candidate running on the moderate Florida Whig Party line. The second candidate, and seemingly more damaging to Rivera's vote total, is a candidate known as Roly Arrojo, who is running on a Tea Party line. A poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research claimed that Arrojo was garnering 7% of the vote, which happened to be the identical amount that Garcia led Rivera by in the same poll.

However, all may not be what it seems. First, the poll was released by the DCCC, and the pollster, GQRR, is a company with strong Democratic ties. Furthermore, Roly's real name is Jose Arrojo, he's a registered Democrat, and he's never been affiliated with any Tea Party operating in Florida. But the alleged fraud does not stop there; Rivera points out that Arrojo was a director of a Miami Real Estate Management company called Project Mercury, which is the same company that Garcia's campaign manager, Jeffery Garcia, co-founded. The Republican's campaign also points to the fact that Michelle Arrojo, Roly's wife, owned a Miami Rental Complex with Jeffery Garcia until the two sold it this past May. Finally, the Rivera Campaign produced childhood friends of Garcia and Arrojo, who attended Belen Jesuit Prep Academy with both of them, who claim that the two are lifelong friends, and say that Jose has never gone by the name Roly, which happens to be the only name he listed on his 2010 candidate application.

Whether all, some, or none of the claims made by Garcia and Rivera, against one another, are true, they are certainly muddying the waters for both campaigns. And regardless of whether Arrojo had ulterior motives in entering the FL-25 race on the Tea Party line, his name will appear on the ballot and likely draw some votes away from Rivera. The Republicans certainly still have a slight advantage in this district, and this looks to be a strong year at the polls for the party, but because of the closeness of the 2008 races, the 3rd party candidates, and the negative claims made by both sides, it's impossible to project Rivera as the winner of this open GOP seat. Garcia seems equally likely to walk away with a razor-thin victory.

This year, the midterm election politicking heated-up in Wisconsin when 21-term Incumbent Democrat Representative David Obey fell from grace following his "yea" vote for Obamacare and subsequently decided to retire from D+3 WI-7. Former Road Rules contestant, and current Ashland District Attorney, Sean Duffy and his Real World alum wife, Rachael (Campos) Duffy, had already made his intentions to run for the WI-7 GOP nomination known prior to Obey's decision to retire. The political hoopla that followed Duffy's announcement certainly played a role in the Congressman's decision to avoid a tough re-election battle. State Senator Julie Lassa is the Democratic nominee to replace Obey, and while she's likely to give Duffy a tougher challenge than the embattled Obey would have, it's still unlikely that she can derail the Republican's momentum in the increasingly anti-democrat climate of Wisconsin.

The WI-7 excitement took much of the focus away from the race that had been the NRCC's primary 2010 target in Wisconsin; WI-8. Sophomore Representative Steve Kagen had become extremely unpopular in the R+2 congressional district, which he picked-up for Democrats in the 2006 midterms. After running as a moderate, Kagen proceeded to vote in lockstep with the Democratic Leadership, despite the majority of constituents in his district making their opposition known to most of the White House's agenda. This turned Kagen into a political "dead man walking", which brought about a crowded field of Republican challengers; made up of businessman, doctors, and elected officials. All seven of the original candidates were initially polling ahead of Kagen, but as time went on, all the first-time candidates dropped out in favor of businessman Reid Ribble, with only the elected officials remaining to battle him in the primary. Ribble's outsider appeal won the day, and he easily took the nomination, which is likely to be a preview of the general election if all the WI-8 polling has been correct.

With all the excitement, money and resources that these 2 congressional contests commanded--as well as the media's focus on competitive statewide races for Governor and Senate--there was little attention left for other potentially competitive Wisconsin House districts. However, in the opposite corner of the state, Republicans have fielded their strongest candidate ever against 7-term Democrat Representative Ron Kind; conservative State Senator Dan Kapanke.

Unlike many other states, Wisconsin's GOP strongholds are in middle class and wealthy Urban/Suburban areas, while more rural, agricultural areas are traditionally Democratic. The Catholic vote is also crucial to any modern Republican victories in Wisconsin, and they've managed to increase their support among Catholic Voters in every midterm election cycle since 1998. WI-3 was traditionally a rural district, but the downturn of American agriculture since the 1970s, and the districts position between Milwaukee/Madison & Minneapolis/St. Paul metro areas, has turned the 7th increasingly suburban, and thus increasingly Catholic. While Rep Kind regularly received 60%+ in re-elections, he had never been in a position where he had to place so many votes against his constituents' desire. After backing TARP, Stimulus, Cap'n'Trade & Obamacare, and the recent revelation that Kind took vacations at AIG's expense, the Democrat Incumbent now finds himself well under 50% in all polls and running against a popular, innovative, energetic conservative legislator.

Kapanke--a married father of 4 and grandfather of 11--owns a local minor league baseball team, spent 13 years in local elected office, and then decisively won 2 elections to the State Senate within the 3rd district's territory. He also had a strong 3rd qtr in fundraising, but still lags well behind Kind's $1.7 million. However, close to a million has been spent by independent business & conservative organizations on Kapanke's behalf, running ads against Kind, which is helping to erase the gap between the two. What has also worked in Kapanke's favor is Kind's insistence on bragging about his support of Obamacare, declaring that he believes the Republican State Senator will repeal the legislation is elected to the House. If Kind loses this democratic-leaning district, these statements will be seen as a major miscalculation on the Congressman's part. With the projected high Republican turnout in Wisconsin--expected largely in support of Senate candidate Ron Johnson--Kapanke needs only to keep Kind at or below 47% in the final week of the election. If he can do this, then the majority of undecided voters will likely break his way on Election Day, and the Republican will narrowly pick-up this D+4 district in November.

Illinois, like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin, is a rust belt state where voters are greatly affected by high unemployment, and they've grown incredibly angry over failed Democrat economic policy. The executive and legislative failures of the last 2 years are making even the staunchest union Democrat voters, throughout the Midwest, question whether the Left's insistence on Government intervention is really the right answer to America's economic woes. Furthermore, they feel that the Obama Administration and Democratic Leadership are ignoring the desires of the majority of people, believing instead they know better than average Americans, and eliminating more individual liberties in the name of "Social Progress". And when working class Americans no longer have confidence that Democrats can handle the specific issues they've faithfully elected them to address, they begin paying more attention to the party's socially liberal agenda, which they have long ignored, despite it differing quite greatly from their own. This political metamorphosis is taking place in more and more Democrat-held congressional districts throughout the Midwest.

Prognosticators believe the Rust belt is where Republicans will likely make 50% of their 2010 gains. The voter angst is so palpable that at least 30 democrat seats are competitive between those 6 states, and as many as 50 could be conceivably picked-up by The GOP across the entire Midwest. In Illinois, the situation for Democrats is even worse, with the rampant corruption--highlighted by former Governor Rod Blagojevich's trial--and the administrative failures of current Governor Pat Quinn & Chicago Mayor Richard Daly, Democrats find themselves without a single positive political achievement to run on.

While Republicans are certain to make a few gains in Illinois' current political climate, the possibility exists to pick-up as many as half-a-dozen. However, the NRCC focused almost exclusively on picking-up the two R+1 CDs of IL-11 & IL-14 and the increasingly unlikely task of holding onto IL-10. Republicans have fielded spectacular candidates in the 11th & 14th, and, with adequate funds and resources, they'll almost certainly win these seats against the unpopular incumbents. However, Republicans have also fielded some great lower profile candidates in harder-to-win CDs; such as conservative Orthodox Jew Joel Pollak in IL-9 and Tea Party-backed philanthropist Joe Walsh in IL-8.

Nowhere have the Republicans fielded a more perfect candidate than in IL-17. Conservative Catholic Father-of-10 Bobby Schilling is the American everyman. He's the guy you thought Joe-The-Plumber was going to be. He's as hard working as they come; a former union steward and factory worker, who went on to sell life insurance and open a successful small business with his wife of 24 years, Christie. Schilling exemplifies the strength and values of his working class Mississippi river district. However, this region, which has seen its industries deteriorate and jobs evaporate over the last 3 decades--especially following President Clinton's decision to open trade with China in 2000--is trying to reinvent itself, searching for a new identity to bring about a more prosperous future.

Following the 1980 census, this district was cut specifically to keep a Democrat in office, and it has done exactly that since the debut of its new borders in the 1982 midterms. From the time many manufacturing industries started closing in the late 1980s, which caused Union membership to drop drastically within the 17th, this district has become increasingly Republican; causing the need for it to be further gerrymandered in favor of Democrats prior to the 2002 midterms. When the Democrat Representative, Lane Evans, who had held it ever since that '82 election, decided to retire in 2006, Rep Phil Hare ran as a conservative Democrat in an attempt to not lose IL-17 to Republicans. Hare easily won the open seat in that 2006 election, which resulted in Republicans not even fielding a challenger against him in 2008.

When political unknown Schilling was the only Republican to enter this race in 2010, most DC pundits assumed Rep. Hare was likely to breeze to another easy victory. Then this past spring, Hare made one telling comment at a town hall, where his constituents were voicing their anger about Obamacare, and that statement has continued to resonate to this day. When he said he didn't care about whether Obamacare was unconstitutional, he'd vote for it anyway, he opened the voters eyes to who he and the Democrats really were. From that point on, every time Hare showed up in his district, he was bombarded with questions from constituents about the votes he has cast in Congress. He has answered most of those questions with equally foolish responses, in a tone that most consider defensive & condescending. Any advantage Hare had has disappeared, and the most recent polls have shown Hare's numbers falling into the 30s, with Schilling anywhere from 5% to 17% ahead. If the GOP has the huge year that most pundits believe, it will be this district, these 2 candidates, and this race that most exemplify the political environment of 2010.

To put Washington State in simple political terms; the eastern half is Republican, while the Western half is Democrat. However, there are only 2 eastern CDs, while the west has 7, of which only one is held by a Republican. In 2010, Republicans primarily focused on the 2 western districts, WA-2 & WA-3, that are furthest from Seattle Metro and which border the 3 districts they already hold.

They're especially focused on WA-3, where Democrat Rep Brian Baird chose to retire rather than run for re-election in the current climate. Hispanic conservative Jaime Herrera finished top-two in Washington's non-partisan primary for the competitive district, which saw 16,000 more Republicans vote than Democrats. Herrera now leads all polls for the seat.

The Republican's other hope for a pick-up is D+3 WA-2. In this district, Republican John Koster, who lost the race for this then-GOP open seat in 2000, is re-challenging the man who defeated him 10 years ago, 5-term Democrat Rep. Rick Larsen. "Blue Dog" Larsen looked very safe after winning nearly 2/3 of the votes in his last 3 re-election bids. However, after voting for TARP, Stimulus, Cap'n'Trade, and Obamacare, he has become extremely vulnerable in this conservative leaning seat; once held by the original Blue Dog, Scoop Jackson. In a district known as The Gateway to Alaska, where most of that state's king crab fleets dock and their fisherman reside, Koster was further aided by the endorsement of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. With all the hoopla in Washington over an open seat and a Palin endorsement, little attention or dollars were left for other races.

However, what was going un-noticed was the waning popularity of 7-term Democrat Representative Adam Smith in D+6 WA-9. This district, which stretches along the Puget coastline between Seattle and Olympia, is one that the GOP won in the 1994 Republican Revolution. It is a cross between the upper-middle class suburban district that Republican Reichert currently holds and the working class wilderness district that Herrera is likely to pick-up. The mixture of moderate white collar suburbanites, angry over Obamacare and the intrusive nature of Big Government, and socially conservative blue collar workers, frustrated with high unemployment and failed Democrat economic policies, has created a perfect storm that could bring Republicans back into power here after 14 years away. Rep. Smith, at first, looked safe when it appeared he'd get to run again against Jim Postma, a Republican he easily defeated in 2008, but when Dick Muri decided to run, it changed the race. Muri is a popular County Councilmember in Pierce County, which encompasses about 60% of the district. When 2 September polls showed Smith under 50% and Muri only a few points behind, DC pundits & Seattle media were taken by surprise. Since then, this district has got a lot of attention in Seattle Metro, which resulted in Smith getting defensive and going negative against Muri. This has only helped Muri's cause, elevating him to serious contender.

Muri's greatest hurdle is raising funds to run ads in the expensive Seattle media market. With so much national attention focused on the 2nd & 3rd CDs, it's been difficult to get substantial out-of-state donation or convince the NRCC to become seriously involved. However, a number of PACs and non-profits took notice of this race, and they have started to spend money against Smith. And with less than $500,000 in the bank, the Democrat is in relatively poor shape for a 7-term incumbent. Muri can certainly catch Smith with just a little national attention and a few weeks of quality fundraising, which would put the Republican in prime position to flip this once "safe" district.

Within the NYC Metro area, Republicans rarely win. Staten Island and Long Island are the only areas where they manage to get elected, and Rep. Peter King [NY-3] is currently the only Republican among the 18 CDs considered to be NYC Metro, within the state of New York. However, with the anger among middle and upper class suburban voters--especially Catholics & Jews--the Republican fortunes may be looking up.

The Republicans put their primary focus on the 2 seats that they most recently held and where anger with Obamacare and failed Democratic Economic Policies were highest: NY-1 & NY-13. However, typical NY GOP intra-party politics reared its head. With incredibly bitter primaries, which seen State and Local parties taking opposing sides and attempting to manipulate races, Republican fortunes have waned in these 2 districts. This is especially true in NY-13, where Democrat Rep. Mike McMahon wisely helped his cause by voting against Obamacare.

However, all is not lost in NYC for Republicans. There's an often ignored seat in the Southern half of Nassau County that Republicans held for all but 2 terms from WW II until 1996. That year, registered Republican Carolyn McCarthy, recently widowed by subway mass murderer Colin Ferguson, ran on the Democratic ticket and rode suburban anger with conservative-focused GOP policies--and local anger with Rep. Daniel Frisa--to a 17% major upset. Since then McCarthy's polite demeanor and past tragedy have given her adequate support to hold-on comfortably to the district. However, in the last year, she has seen much of that support erode. First, a considered primary run against Senator Kristen Gillibrand earned her the ire of Senator Chuck Schumer and NY Dems in Albany. Then, McCarthy's "yea" votes for virtually all of Obama's agenda angered the conservatives and moderates within her district.

While NY-4 is rated D+6 and leans Democrat in Presidential Races, it is a district filled with mostly moderate Democrats and Republicans. Most importantly, it is an upper-middle class district with a Catholic majority, as well as a large Jewish community. Much of the district is made up of Wall Street traders with families. Anger with Obama and the Democratic Party among Catholics, Jews, and Wall Streeters has opened this up for Republicans. Most importantly, her Republican opponent is Francis X. Becker Jr. He's very popular in the 4th; well known for being a fiscal conservative, who has never once, during his tenure as local legislator, voted for a tax increase, fee, or service charge for Nassau County residents. Like his father before him, Becker has never lost an election within Nassau County. Francis has been re-elected to the Nassau County Legislature within this district every 4 years since 1994, and he easily defeated both of his congressional primary opponents; despite being outspent 4-to-1.

The biggest problem facing Becker is the fund raising gap between him and McCarthy, which is largely due to the fact that DC and Wall Street's eyes, and wallets, have been focused on NY-1 & NY-13. However, if Becker can raise 1/3 of the funds that Randy Altshuler [NY-1] has, he can win NY-4. What also is likely to work in the Republicans' favor is the nominations of Paladino and DioGuardi for statewide office. These two fiery conservative Italian-American candidates have already managed to excite the GOP base and Italian Catholics, and their campaigns almost certainly will increase Republican turnout on Long Island by 8% to 15%.

All of the focus for the NRCC & ColoGOP have been on taking back R+4 CO-3 and R+6 CO-4, which Republicans lost over the last few cycles. The remainder of Democrat-held seats were largely ignored because they are based in Metro Denver. This area has become increasingly Green and socially liberal over the last decade, as upper class White Democrats from LA, San Francisco & Chicago relocated to escape urban decay.

However, in 2010, it is precisely these types of middle/upper-middle class voters that are questioning their allegiance to the Democratic Party and their failed social entitlement policies. On top of that, voter anger over the failure of Obama and the Democratic Congress to pass immigration legislation, as well as Mayor Hickenlooper's decision to make Denver a "sanctuary city", have pushed many of the Democrats' middle-class and "culturally elite" base to the right. In this atmosphere, an entirely new energetic brilliant young Republican can catch fire and draw-in huge numbers of independent and left-leaning voters; even in a major metro area. And Black conservative Ryan Frazier has done just that.

Frazier, an Aurora City Councilman, breezed to a primary victory over fellow conservative Lang Sias, showing the confidence & poise of a young Ronald Reagan. He hammered Rep Ed Perlmutter on the potential damage that Obamacare will cause to average Americans' quality-of-care and the utter failure of multiple Stimulus Bills to improve Colorado's economy, until the Democrat had no choice but to respond. Frazier forced Perlmutter into debates, and then proved steadfast and unshakable in those appearances. When Perlmutter forced tears and declared that his daughter needed embryonic stem cell research for her epilepsy, Frazier refused the bait. He stood by his beliefs, explaining that embryonic stem cells were Life and that tax dollars should not be used for research; pointing out that current studies have failed to prove that embryonic stem cells are superior to adult stem cells for medical advancement. Frazier has so impressed Coloradans with his commonsense solutions for responsible government, that he even earned the endorsement of The Denver Post over Rep Perlmutter.

Polls following the primary showed Frazier tied or even leading Perlmutter by 1%, and even Perlmutter's own poll, at the time, showed the incumbent under 50%. More recently, internal polls have shown Frazier up between 3% and 5%, and most prognosticators now consider D+5 CO-7 a toss-up. Gauging from the size, energy, and diversity of the crowds that greet Ryan anywhere he goes, it's hard to believe he's headed anywhere other than Capitol Hill.

As 2010 began, all GOP eyes were on WV-1. Despite being held by the Mollohan family for 42 years, Democrat Rep Alan Mollohan had grown increasingly unpopular. His support for Stimulus, Cap'n'Trade & Healthcare had turned him into a pariah, Coal owners & unions abandoned him, and it seemed assured that the Republicans would take the R+9 district. However, rather than waiting for November, voters tossed Mollohan in the Primary. While the White House did all they could to protect Mollohan, the Democrats actually greatly improved their position when he lost. Now Democrat Nominee Michael Oliverio has at least a 50/50 shot of retaining the seat, and he has managed to get the support of most of the people that kept the Mollohans in this seat for so long. However, GOP hope for a pick-up in WV doesn't rest solely with McKinley. In 2008, both of WV's Democrat-held districts voted for McCain over Obama, and by a larger margin than did the GOP held district WV-2. Despite its R+6 rating, 9-term incumbent Nick Rahall--having been installed by Late Senator Robert Byrd--seemed like an immovable permanent political object in WV-3. Enter retired Supreme Court Judge Elliott "Spike" Maynard. Formerly a Democrat, "Justice Spike" has long been an outspoken colorful political fixture in southern West Virginia coal country. Rahall, who had been a darling of Coal, followed the lead of Sen. Byrd in the 111th Congress. Rahall echoed Byrd's statements, suggesting that it was time for WV to look to the future and develop an industry beyond coal; embracing Cap'n'Trade and the billions in Government funding for "Clean Energy" that would supposedly follow. Nowhere did this anger the voters more than in Rahall's own district. Add to that votes for Obamacare, TARP & Stimulus, and now you have a very competitive race. Coal Owners have got solidly behind Maynard, and while the leaders of the Coal Unions have reluctantly continued to back Rahall, the members are defecting at a rapid pace. Maynard's fund raising picked up considerably after 2 August polls showed him only 3-6% behind Rahall, and in a recent debates, Maynard managed to make Rahall looked scared and confused. Despite recent attempts by Democrat Push Pollsters Jeff Liszt & Global Strategies to slow Maynard's momentum by claiming Rahall was 20%+ ahead, a reliable October PAC poll shows the congressman below 45% and in a statistical dead heat with the Republican. As a result, the NRCC named Spike as a top tier Young Gun, which means critical money & resources to help him unseat Rahall. It's a pretty good bet that Obama's low approval--only in the 30's in WV--will equate to a November pick-up for House Republicans, and it's now just as likely to be WV-3 as it is open WV-1.

The top target for Republicans in NC for 2010 has been NC-8, where Rep Larry Kissell took a seat away from Republicans, in 2008, with help from Obama's "coat-tails". However, the 2nd best opportunity in the state has continually shifted. First, folks looked towards R+4 NC-11, thinking Heath Shuler would be pushed by Pelosi to vote along party lines and lose his Blue Dog status. But Shuler remained consistently independent and voted against the Obama Administration's major Legislation. The opportunity for victory became slim, although Jeff Miller still stays close in the polls. Then it was the state's newest CD, NC-13, and Rep Brad Miller, who were targeted by Republicans. However, a contentious GOP primary & run-off, coupled with poor fundraising by the eventual winner, Bill Randell, caused NC Republicans to fear they've seen that opportunity come and go.

As the year wore on and clearly began taking on a "1994" air, focus started shifting to 2 CDs that Republicans picked up in that Republican-landslide election year; NC-2 & NC-4, which both went back to Democrats the following cycle, where they've stayed since. Etheridge's on-camera confrontation with 2 college students brought national attention to NC-2, giving Republican Renee Ellmers an opportunity for major national earned media. While NC-4 GOP Nominee, Dr. BJ Lawson, rode the Obamacare debate to strong earned media and fundraising gains. While Republicans have their best opportunity in a long time to win these races, both still remain relative long shots against entrenched well-funded Price and Etheridge.

However, one race has begun to get national attention, creating an unexpected pick-up opportunity for Republicans in a district they haven't won since Reconstruction. Despite votes against Obamacare & Cap'n'Trade, Rep Mike McIntyre faced considerable anger for his votes in favor of both Stimulus Bills and now finds himself in the fight of his life against bright, inspiring and photogenic Conservative Marine Ilario Pantano. Republicans had endorsed 2008 nominee Will Breazeale to run again in 2010, when Pantano decided to enter the race. NCGOP instantly recognized his strength, and many prominent NC Republicans openly switched endorsements from Breazeale to Pantano. While Democrats have had a stranglehold on NC-7, and McIntyre has easily held it for 7-terms, the district has become increasingly Republican--now rated R+5--due to the construction of numerous high-end neighborhoods and an ever enlarging Military community. Of the 8 NC districts held by Democrats, McCain won only 2, of which NC-7 was the district where he won by the largest vote margin. Besides anger from the Middle & Right over Stimulus votes, what has also damaged McIntyre's re-election is a boycott by left-leaning Teachers and UNCW University Students, for his votes against Obamacare & Cap'n'Trade. This is a major core of his constituency, and if the boycott holds, there's little chance McIntyre can hold the district without them. If Pantano can continue his national exposure and excellent fund raising momentum, he's likely to give Republicans a win in NC-7 for the first time in 140 years!

This was the long held congressional seat of Democrat Ohio Governor Ted Strickland. The Ohio Republican Party rarely targeted Strickland, while in Congress, as he was considered a consistent Blue Dog with the backing of NRA & Social Conservatives. In 2006, when Strickland decided to run for Governor and this seat opened up, the ORP had high hopes for state legislator Chuck Blasdel to finally get them this R+2 conservative leaning district back. However, Blasdel performed poorly, losing against Strickland's hand-picked successor, Rep Charlie Wilson, by 24%, and this seat went back into the out-of-reach category on GOP charts

During the 2010 primary, the ORP was internally split between which of 2 candidates--prominent Youngstown veterinarian Donald Allen or '08 nominee Richard Stobbs--they preferred to challenge Wilson, but neither won. Instead it was independent conservative Tea-Party-backed Bill Johnson that took the nomination. The moderate-controlled state party wasn't excited about Johnson's nomination, and they placed this race sixth on their target list behind OH-1 OH-15 OH-16 OH-18 & OH-13. However, Johnson, backed by an enthusiastic conservative grassroots army, relied on his unshakable optimism and workhorse attitude to get his message heard at any gathering of 2-or-more people willing to listen, eventually earning the attention & endorsement of Sarah Palin. After a moderate start to his fundraising and an expensive primary, Johnson was well behind Wilson. But then he started gaining national attention; eventually outraising Wilson by $40,000 in the 2nd quarter and raising an additional $160,000 in the 3rd quarter. After just 2 terms in a low profile district, Wilson hasn't built up much of a warchest, and the difference between he and Johnson's finances are now minimal.

As a result, OH-6 is now considered by most to be one of the 3 most likely OH CDs to turn GOP in 2010. Rep. Wilson's votes in favor of TARP, Stimulus, Cap'n'Trade & Obamacare, have completely lost him the Blue Dog reputation that Strickland built for Democrats in the 6th. Recent Polls show Wilson well below 50%, with Johnson polling anywhere from 1% back to 4% ahead. While the 6th has it's staunch Democrat pockets, such as Athens, Steubenville, and the Youngstown suburbs, the majority of constituents are socially and constitutionally conservative, and the likelihood that Wilson can get 50% of this year's voters to re-elect him is looking increasingly slim. His best hope to survive is that 3rd party candidate Lindsey Sutton can draw 10% of the vote away from Johnson, but, so far, Sutton's only polling around 3%. Bill Johnson is looking more and more like the ultimate underdog champion.

For a political numbers guy like me, this race is a dream. At first glance, CA-47 is a no-win for any Republican. Democrat Rep Loretta Sanchez, a Mexican-American, first elected in 1996, has held this district comfortably since Democrats re-districted it in their favor prior to 2002 midterms. The district is almost 2/3 Hispanic, while only 13% white, and the median income is $10,000 under US average. Sounds like the kind of place a Democrat stays for 5 decades. However, when you look further, this is a much different place than those figures may indicate.

CA-47 is an Orange County congressional district; and, of the 6 districts that encompass Orange County, it's the only one held by a Democrat. While Obama won this district in 2008, they also voted for Schwarzenegger twice and chose Bush over both Gore & Kerry; even after 2002 redistricting. The majority of Hispanics in this district are American born, and many have college degrees and White Collar jobs. This district is also very socially conservative, with 85% of the district consisting of practicing Catholics. Sanchez, if she had not been Hispanic, would likely not have won this district from Republicans. She has become increasingly unpopular over the last 2 years, and the anger over Obamacare has cost her a large number of supporters. Also, in the time since Sanchez has served CA-47, the median income has decreased, while the Republican held districts surrounding it have all averaged an increase. The residents believe their high crime rate--having also increased during Sanchez' term--is a major deterrent to new businesses and investors.

All of this considered, Sanchez would not be extremely vulnerable to the vast majority of Orange County Republicans. Enter conservative state legislator Van Tran. Tran, an American immigrant born in Viet Nam, is a pro-life Catholic, who has easily won re-election to the California Assembly 3 times within the CA-47 boundaries. He was the first Vietnamese-American ever elected to any US state legislature, and has quickly made a name for himself as a social & fiscal conservative and a crusader for victims' rights; having pushed for harsher penalties for violent criminals. Asian-Americans--mostly Catholic Vietnamese--make up almost 20% of the 47th. And while just over half of the Hispanics in this district are registered to vote, 90% of the Asian residents are. Also, Vietnamese currently have a higher voter turnout rate than any other racial/ethnic minority in the United States

Sanchez recently showed she recognizes the role that Race/Ethnicity can play in the voting of this district. While on a Spanish language radio program, Sanchez told Spanish-speaking listeners that the Vietnamese are "trying to steal our seat" and claimed that "they" seek to destroy everything Hispanics have "gained". Seemingly unaware that Tran understands Spanish and has many Hispanic Campaign supporters, she was caught off guard when media asked about the comments. Sanchez first claimed that Tran brought Race in the contest by "bragging" about being the first Vietnamese state legislator, then backtracked a bit by saying "they" referred to Republicans not Vietnamese. Tran capitalized on the foolish comments by stating that the seat belonged to everyone and that he'd be a representative for all constituents of the 47th, regardless of race, ethnicity or party affiliation. Sanchez was even angrier when Mexican-Americans, living within Tran's legislative district, spoke out against her comments and declared they were well represented by Tran in the Assembly. With Sanchez' unable to avoid racial politics at a time when her popularity is waning, as Tran's is waxing, and the voter anger against Obama & Pelosi growing, even in California, this race is anything but a cakewalk for Democrats.

It may seem hard to believe that any Republican incumbent has to worry about losing in the dem-toxic political environment of 2010, but several GOP incumbents find themselves in exactly that position. Jim Gerlach is quite likely the most vulnerable. While conceding that it's one of the tougher races for a Republican Incumbent, many pundits feel that if he survived Obama's "coattails" in '08, then he really should have no problem in '10. However, Gerlach barely survived in 2008 against a very weak Democrat, Bob Roggio, who won the nomination after 3 stronger Democrats were persuaded to exit. And while he received 52% of the vote in a CD where Obama earned 58%, it's precisely the 6th's "split-ticket" nature which threatens Gerlach this year.

Gerlach is on the Left-hand side of the GOP delegation. A member of both major moderate Republican committees, Main Street Partnership & Republicans for Environmental Protection, Gerlach has gained the ire of much of his district's Conservative faction. While PA-6 is a more moderate Republican district, there are still a substantial number of Conservatives, and they're the portion of the party base that is most enthusiastic--and likely to have the highest turnout--in 2010. A number of those voters, many of whom supported Gerlach's primary opponent, Patrick Henry Sellers, have already pledged to vote against him in 2010, in hopes of taking the district back with a more conservative candidate in 2012. However, Gerlach's constituent problems are not concealed to the Right Wing of the GOP. In PA, as with much of the Rust Belt, there's a strong anti-incumbent movement among even independent & moderate voters, and as a member of the House Committee on Financial Services, Gerlach is seen by many as one of the Congressmen who either fell-asleep-at-the-wheel or turned-a-blind-eye and allowed the 2008 Financial Meltdown to occur. Furthermore, Gerlach finds himself frequently defending his vote in favor of TARP. The same anti-incumbent wave that threatens to oust as many as 7 PA Democrats may also be responsible for the ouster of Rep Gerlach.

Despite all the things working against Gerlach, it'll still be no easy task for a Democrat to unseat him in 2010. Gerlach is very friendly with both the Republicans & Democrats who call the shots in both state parties, and he was even pushed to make a run for either Governor or Senate in 2010. Also, Gerlach is strategically located with-in the 6th, living in Chester county, which is one of the 2 major counties in the district. This has allowed Gerlach to hold onto the seat with high vote totals in Chester, even when losing in the other 3 counties. In 2010, the Democrats tried to combat this by running Roggio, who was from the same county. It was a major mistake to assume that a Republican-leaning county is going to choose to be represented by an unknown Democrat freshman over a GOP incumbent, known for bringing dollars to the region. However, this time, the Democrats have opted for a far better strategy; although it may have been by accident since Trivedi only defeated the Party's preferred Democrat candidate, Doug Pike, by 2% in the Primary. Democratic nominee Manan Trivedi hails from Berks County, which is the district's other major population center. Chester will certainly go heavily for Gerlach; Montgomery is working class and provides the Democrat with a solid foundation, while the Lehigh portion is so small it's irrelevant. However, It is Berks County, producing 1/3 of the total vote, which usually decides this district; if a Republican wins or keeps his loss to single digits here, he wins overall, but if the Democrat can manage a solid victory in Berks, as Obama did, then the district goes their way.

Dr. Trivedi is quite possibly the perfect candidate to beat Gerlach in 2010. Being a veteran is a prerequisite for any Democrat hoping to win a GOP-held CD in PA, as a means of showing he's not a "flake", and as a Commander in the Navy, Trivedi served in Iraq. Furthermore, the fact that Manan defeated the Democratic Party's chosen candidate, Doug Pike, who is the wealthy son of former Democrat Congressman Otis Pike, automatically gives him "outsider" status, which is the most prized political possession for a candidate in 2010. However, Trivedi isn't a candidate who won on a fluke, doomed to be rejected by his own party. While having much less on-hand than Pike following the primary, Trivedi has raised considerable funds since, and has proven adept at building voter coalitions. When Pike rejected the endorsement of J-Street, a liberal Jewish Org, Trivedi seized the opportunity; attending Seder dinner with the group's president. This provided Trivedi, an Indian-American, with an opportunity to capture a key voting bloc within the 6th's upper middle-class Philadelphia suburbs, and he's built up from there; gaining the support of all major Democrat constituencies-with exception of some Unions, who are still angry over his defeat of Pike.

The key to whether Trivedi can go against type and defeat Gerlach comes down to whether the political plot of 2010 is more "anti-democrat" or "anti-incumbent". The Republican candidate for Governor, Tom Corbett is a heavy favorite, and the GOP candidate for Senate, Pat Toomey, is favored to win as well. Considering that PA-6 is known for being "split-ticket", one has to consider whether constituents will opt for Republicans at the top, but vote Democrat for congress. In the PA-6 Primary, 42,000 voted Democrat, while 44,000 voted Republican. Considering that Republicans had far higher primary turn-out, nationally, these close numbers in a GOP-held CD don't bode well for Gerlach's chances of holding on.

Rep. John Tierney has held this district since he narrowly took it from Republican Peter Torkildsen with help from a high 1996 Democrat turnout to re-elect President Clinton. As a result of the GOP moving Right nationally, MA Republicans have drifted Left, helping Tierney easily hold onto the district ever since. However, all of that came before the death of iconic Senator Ted Kennedy, who long gave Catholics political "permission" to vote against Church teaching by electing pro-choice Democrats. As importantly, it came before Scott Brown's massive victory. While Obama won this district with 57% of the vote in 2008, Scott Brown won it a year later with 58%.

Throughout New England, Catholic voters are questioning their exclusive support of Democrats and finally considering electing some commonsense Republicans to represent them. This has brought about GOP Candidates for 9 of the 10 MA congressional seats in 2010, where only about half were challenged in 2008. Earlier in the year, much of the money and focus was going to MA-10, where Delahunt's retirement opened the Democrat seat known to have one of the more conservative voter bases in MA. As a result, a brutal angry primary ensued, giving GOP Nominee, Jeff Perry, a harder road to victory. However, Scott Brown received equally high vote totals in MA-6, which is also the area where 2 of Massachusetts 5 GOP State Senators hail from. And being that the 6th is one of Massachusetts more Republican CDs, Tierney has seen his support erode; due largely to his steadfast support of Speaker Pelosi, whose daughter was even his chief of staff for several terms. Tierney also faced criticism from constituents for declaring that it was the state's exclusive duty to provide Healthcare in the 1990s, but then, this year, supporting a national Public Option, which would exempt the MA program.

Saugus Businessman & Rotary President Bill Hudak has proved a worthy challenger for Rep. Tierney, and even destroyed the congressman in fundraising during the 2nd quarter; bringing in $500,000 to Tierney's measly $560. However, Hudak had to spend much on the primary, and Tierney has saved up plenty from many extremely easily election cycles. Though, just as Scott Brown captured the attention and support of Massachusetts voters by taking his message to the people, Bill Hudak has worked tirelessly to have his message heard anywhere they're willing to listen. It can be assumed that it's working since Tierney has started running negative ads against Hudak and tried to label the Republican as "far right" and a "Birther". Massachusetts has long shied away from "Right Wing Republicans", but Hudak is far from a Tom Tancredo, and looks better poised, in 2010, than any MA Republican challenger to capitalize on the momentum that Scott Brown ignited.